Who ya got?

I'm sure I'll miss some people that are at least worthy of mention, but I think there are only even four players that seem worth mentioning from a quick glance over the stats, and I really would bet it's down to two that really have a chance due to the hype around them.

The Hitters:
Gaby Sanchez (FLA) - .294/.355/.461/.816 line, with 52 RBI, 12 HR and 5 SB (in 5 attempts). According to fangraphs, he's worth 2.1 Wins over a replacement player. He's considered pretty much exactly average on defense according to fangraphs as well.

Jason Heyward (ATL) - .262/.377/.451/.827 line, with 51 RBI, 12 HR and 8 SB (in 13 attempts). He's worth 2.7 wins and is somewhat above average on defense according to fangraphs, and does play at least somewhat more of a premium position than Sanchez, as, unless I'm mistaken, he primarily plays RF.


The Pitchers:

Jaime Garcia (STL) - 9-5 record, 2.53 ERA and 97 K's against 46 BB's in 121 IP over 21 starts. Worth 2.5 wins according to fangraphs.

Stephen Strasburg (WAS) - 5-2 record, 2.32 ERA and an amazing 75 K's against 15 BB's. Had only pitched 54 1/3 innings over 9 starts, but obviously is getting a tremendous amount of hype. Despite his IP and starts, is still already worth 2.3 wins (and this is a counting stat, so it's not one of those things where a small sample size could dramatically inflate WAR)


Who will win it, in my opinion.

I think it's a race between Strasburg and Heyward, with Heyward being the more likely player, simply because even despite how amazing of a pitcher he's been, Strasburg probably just won't have the innings for most writers to justify giving him any higher than 2nd on their ballots.

Who SHOULD win it, in my opinion.

Again, I'll hedge, because there's still 40-50 games left in the season, so it's hard to make a final judgment, but as of now, it SHOULD be a race between likely winner Jason Heyward and Jaime Garcia, who has pitched tremendously well and has been out there over twice as much as Strasburg.

As of now, I would think the edge goes to Heyward, because of his advantage in WAR and because positional players tend to do better in RoY voting if there's no clear-cut pitcher that blows the field away.

What's everyone else think? Heyward? Strasburg? Garcia? Someone else I missed entirely?

i think heyward wins at as things are right now. he's a good player but he's gonna win it on hype as long as he just keeps going lie he is. he's going to be a very productive player over the years imo, but the comparisons to griffey... i just don't see it.

that being said, if i were giving the award today, i'd be giving it to jaimie garcia. 40-50 games is enough for any one of these guys to get really hot and snag the award though

Jaime Garcia defeated the Reds 8-4 tonight to improve his record to 10-5. this was a good win, Garcia proved he can go into a hostile environment and win a game against a talented offensive team.

Strasburg was beat up in his return from the 15 day DL giving up 6 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings.

Hick: Good point. I was very worried about last night because Garcia's last start was the first time he got roughed up in awhile, but he's out-dueled Johan Santana twice, and now he's beat the Reds in what, up to this point, is the biggest series of the year for both St. Louis and Cincinnati.

I really hope (assuming things stay roughly the same) that Garcia and Heyward are the two battling for votes.

Twain, I'm bored in irc.

lol, you loser. Don't crash my RoY thread asking me to entertain you :P

Heyword worries me. He's a great player, and with all the hype I'm sure he'll win roy, but man his health bothers me. He's getting minor injuries all the time like a 35 year old player, not a 20 year old bull. Dude sits out like chipper this year, and that contributes th streaky performance.

In my opinion it is between Garcia and Heyward, I think Heyward will win on hype. Im not saying he isnt good or anything as he is putting out impressive stats for a rookie. call me a homer as I would pick Garcia (Im a cardinals fan) but I dont think Heyward would necessarily be a bad pick.