It's not enough to fk up our economy here and create more tension between Taiwan and China..... Even the South Korean president is avoiding her like a plague....

Democrats , the party of peace.....

Dont mess with China i need my cheap gadgets and toys

Tell Brandon!

Who is Brandon? :)

https://youtu.be/u9UjgITXUJ4

:-)

if China were to blockade Taiwan's supply lines, you better have puts on Apple, AMD, NVidia, Intel stocks as they are all sourcing TSMC for chips.

It's already happening, since yesterday, out of 75 container ships that where headed to Taipei, only 15 remaining waiting to get in.

us intelligence : how we get china to waste fuel and show us all new stuff and let us check theirs prep timers ?
someone clever : send Pelosi to Taiwan 😎

---

A bunch of high ranking republicans went to Taiwan this April with almost no word from China.

This time Pelosi went with vocal support from a massive chunk of Republican senators who mainly critique her for not going sooner. :)
This isn't a partisan trip, this is deeply popular among all those Trump-supporting senators and the Trump-appointed ex Secretary of state (Pompeo) etc.

China would have found something else to escalate this conflict over at a time that suited them. Pelosis's visit forced their hand because Xi has his congress and can't afford to look weak. The military show of force will give a great deal of valuable intel for free for the US hopefully.

This whole thing is naturally very dangerous in every way but conflict WILL occur regardless of who visits or doesn't visit Taiwan. The greatest danger by far is giving China the impression that aggression will go unpunished or the impression that the US is weak or unwilling to help Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Vietnam or other neighbors of China who's territorial waters and islands are being violated or captured repeatedly over the past decade or so.
The cost of stopping it will get higher the more you let them have for free. They will have more unsinkable aircraft carriers (artificial and natural islands) in the South China Sea.

Nobody cares about no name senators and us representatives, but when you send your 3rd highest ranking official....it'll get serious attention, this was reckless and irresponsible i don't care who supported it.........prove is in the pudding.

Proof is really not in the pudding yet. This is playing out as we speak and we can't really know what will happen.

So far we have this exercise, some export and import restrictions from China towards Taiwan that are quite unimportant so far. The most important being export restriction of sand to Taiwan. This would be problematic except China is only the 5th largest exporter of sand to Taiwan.
If the chinese exercise ends this Sunday as planned it's pretty chill for now. There are trillions of reasons for why this should be the preferred play by China.

We are most certainly not out of the woods yet. But this conflict will likely escalate at some point regardless of this trip and regardless of how the rest of this week unfolds.

Oh you think this won't affect chips supply around the globe? As long as those ships can't dock it'll cause delays, see evergreen incident, I'm in shipping industry and i can guarantee this will cause issues with some commodities that leave Taipei ports, a day of delay has ripple effect, you can't sit there and pretend everything is honky dory just because this is day 3, it's not, look no further than the stock markets, we're just getting started, China will use this as an excuse to attempt to cripple Taiwanese economy, the fluff already hit the fan, now it's damage control time!


I forgot to mention, we still haven't recovered from the Evergreen incident, i don't know where you live but here in the states we still have shortages of a variety of things plus the ports are still back logged, warehouses are no where near stocked and grocery stores have empty shelves all across the country, when the Evergreen incident happened it took months for the consumer to feel the impact and we're still feeling it today, of you look at Taiwan exports it's not just microchips and cell phones, we even have furniture that comes from there.


But i do hope you're right and it de-escalates, i don't see it happening since China already knows how the world will respond.....see Ukraine.

A lot to unpack in your posts... but for starters:

Stock market is UP, as of you writing that and as of me writing this. It's been climbing since the low late June and Nancy's visit has not broken that.

The shipping delays are minor so far, ships are avoiding certain areas and this causes some minor delays only.

You mentioned a couple companies, but forgot to mention the location of their production base. It's spelled SHYNA for most of them. Also a few very chip dependent companies you didn't mention like Tesla, BYD, Foxconn etc with production almost exclusively in China each of whom will be crippled by a ship blockade that affects chips(I had to).

Related to this;
China's property sector is currently in freefall because individuals and companies have been buying apartements and buildings speculatively for years, with slightly different mechanisms and rules but seemingly they saw the 2008 financial crisis in the US and have been trying to replicate it. This is the valuation of bonds of a few of their multi-billion dollar, in a few cases hundreds of billion dollar market cap real estate companies in China:

https://imgur.com/a/lSuTpZG

This is the yield of chinese junk bonds(mostly related to real estate investment):
https://i.imgur.com/NU0TLxC.png

Institutions hold these notes, mostly banks. You remember 2008? Remember all the talk of glass-stegal and the separation of investment banking and commercial banking? Well China has more or less plagiarized your economy pre-2008. The regular commercial banks people think their money was safe in acted as investment bank and held these bonds in these real estate firms and everything was fine and dandy when the real estate prices were rising. They are not anymore tho.
As a result it's banking sector is facing a bank run and potential collapse of some large regional banks for starters. China is attempting to solve this by refusing withdrawals from many large banks and violently attacking people who protest it. People have responded by trying to refuse to pay their mortages en masse in several regions. Maybe authoritarianism is great for avoiding a total financial crisis? They do however have most of the ingredients needed to create one.

If China wants to set fire to the world economy right now, this will annihilate the only part of the chinese economy that has been doing decently well lately; chinese manufacturing. Sure we will burn as well, but they will burn first and the most painfully.
This is why it is absolutely essential for Xi to avoid uncontrollable escalation right now. Yes, they will escalate in ways they can control perhaps, a show of force, some more sanctions but going further is very detrimental to China and Xi.
Does he know this? I very much hope so and I'm decently sure he does.

It was a republican that Forked over Taiwan, His name was Nixon, when he let the communist have the seat on the security council. As well as agreed to the one china policy in the Shanghai Communiqué of 1972. After all it better to make an extra dollar then a a couple dozen million people staying free.
Maybe she should have gone to the DMZ for a photo op with Kim.

or maybe she should be like CPAC, and invited a good NAZI like Viktor Orbán to come join her on the visit.

You don't get it, left wing, right wing...same fluffing bird! Stop being a sheep, open your eyes!

I wonder what Pelosi really had on her agenda. She is not stupid enough to know that the Speaker cannot make a trip to Taiwan without making a huge diplomatic issue - so there had to be some hidden or personal agenda.

Just Brandon acting like he is a tough leader and will not be pushed around.

Now we can safely judge the aftermath of Pelosis visit as Chinas exercise has come to an end:

-Markets are up
-A bipartisan delegation of american house/senate politicians was there today without China blowing a gasket. Pelosi's visit has normalized this.
-China wasted fuel, money and ammunition on their show of force.
-Pentagon aquired valuable intel on Chinese armed forces readiness, response times, tactics and weapons systems.
-China firing missiles into Japanese waters will trigger japanese defense spending increases and military stance updates, they are going to be in this fight against China and they are going to make themselves ready for it.

The way I see it is that Nancy's visit could have been meaningless or worse, but China made unforced errors to save face and were not ready to do more.
The war will come. But if anything at all, last few weeks has weakened China's hand because of the free intel they gave to the enemy, and because they made the mistake of agitating Japan.

should send in all the old farts first and save the youth till last

So supply chain (already stretched) disruption doesn't matter....got it, typical mentality of people that think supplies magically appear every morning on the shelves......yeah everything is honky dory......

You mean my kitchen pantry doesn’t replenish it’s self magically??? :(

Who would've thought!

https://www.flexport.com/...ean-timeliness-indicator/

You can clearly see we are headed into less delays on global shipping and Pelosi won't change that. Because the delays from the exercises were measured in hours and not days or weeks. Is this your final strawman arguement?
Lets check the score here, since Pelosi's visit: MARKETS ARE UP, SHIPPING DELAYS ARE DOWN. Neither has anything to do with her visit of course.

You seem like in love with her, you portray her as omnipotent. You need to take a soft look at her slouching body one more time, she isn't potent in any way shape or form I'm afraid! It's crazy how people look up to politicians these days...

Pelosi is hot. I would tap it.

Right, you're an expert in shipping industry, got it.

I have access to google. I gave you the link, you can look for yourself. The situation is rapidly improving now and has been for months. None of this has anything to do with Pelosi.

I tapped that years ago and that is why she still walks funny

Except when trump taxes China and assassinates a “very bad” Iranian he’s on a peace tour. You’re all jokes trying to justify your parties.

*Also bonus

You're assuming I'm a color wearing go team sheep, the trumpet fluffed up too in several fronts 🤷




Google lol that's as bad as mainstream media where they control the information cycle and add their spin, I've been in transport and logistics for 25 years, i don't need the media to tell me how to think about world events, these are the same people that covered the Evergreen incident and after day 2 they started sounding alarms about supply chain disruptions (rightfully so) but somehow no supply chain disruptions will occur on a 10 day delay from one of the world's busiest ports.....apply critical thinking, it won't kill you, also this would have happened with any high level important government official from the US no matter what party sent them there, oh by the way.... We are still long ways away from recovering from the previous disaster, so saying that this won't be a problem is asinine....

You're Google information gave you bad information, Gerdler, the Chinese haven't "finished" their so called military exercises.....
https://youtu.be/AONz5OJTA-o

Things aren't getting better, shipping delays are ongoing and supply chain disruptions are inevitable at this point, just like i said there would be, but what do I know. 🤷

AND THIS JUST HAPPENED.. youtu.be/XZmDyfzYul4

Fix the link please

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZmDyfzYul4

LOL

They left Hunter out, the flies look about right not sure if it is because he is a piece of fluff or because he looks like a cadaver.