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Karim Game profile

Member
761

Feb 14th 2013, 14:39:21

Are you still investing in expenses reduction as of today or did you already start investing in Indy booms?

Made some math and it would be worth like 10% more NW from here to end.
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oldman Game profile

Member
877

Feb 14th 2013, 14:46:12

If you have been investing in expense since the beginning, you are likely to be nearly -30% I believe.

There're about 1000 turns left in the game. To illustrate how to do the calculation, the following assumptions are made: your average expense over the last 1000 turns is about $5m/turn and you have 0 military tech.

8 bonus points get you -0.8% expense. That means you save $5m/0.7*0.008 = $58k/turn

$58k/turn over the last 1000 turns = $58m

You can calculate if the 8 bonus points are better invested in booms by comparing your income during boom to the $58m saved if you invested in expense.

Karim Game profile

Member
761

Feb 14th 2013, 14:52:45

Got it. Definitively better to go booms, even if that 58k per turn saved has to be multiplied for the remaining 2.4 weeks escalating.
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Karim Game profile

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761

Feb 14th 2013, 14:53:52

If i am not wrong, booms alone from here to the end should be worth 10mils NW.
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oldman Game profile

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877

Feb 14th 2013, 14:56:14

well, that depends on your country size.

There're about 17 days worth of bonus left.

17*8 + 4*3 (3 weeks' worth of forum posting bonus) = 148 points
That's 24*2 = 48 indy booms for you and 2 extra turns.

Karim Game profile

Member
761

Feb 14th 2013, 14:57:16

Obviously....i was making the math on my country.
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Karim Game profile

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761

Feb 14th 2013, 14:59:13

.
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Karim Game profile

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761

Feb 14th 2013, 14:59:59

.
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Xinhuan Game profile

Member
3728

Feb 14th 2013, 16:54:12

Karim, booms on the other hand cause your country to have extra military units, increasing upkeep (both money and expensive food). :P

Also your average expenses over the last 1000 turns is way more than $5/turn lol. It's closer to $10m/turn for the larger commies who will average maybe 60m NW (Your NW will rise linearly from now to whatever your ending NW is. If it is say 100m NW, and you're at 20m now, then 60m is a good average).

Remember oldman's example is just an example, not actual values.

Feel free to look at past reset profiles of players who didn't hide them, and look at their expenses at different NW ranges.

(Basically, you're probably still good to go -expenses for a couple more days - just guessing, since I don't know your country).

Karim Game profile

Member
761

Feb 14th 2013, 17:29:02

Actually my country is almost tech maxed, and i did hold some farms to keep the maintaining affordable (food at 70k would have been a killer), so my expenses are pretty low atm: the plan was to stock the cash needed to do a complete buyout of my private market at the last hour and after that just straight cash my turns.

I expect an expenses increase in the last week only, and with max tech it shouldn't increase that fast ( when i got to 80 mils few sets ago i never had more than 5mils per turn).

Consider that my expectations are to break 100mils, so i am not as experienced as you are :)
-[Panzer Division MD]-

Xinhuan Game profile

Member
3728

Feb 14th 2013, 17:45:14

I would recommend not stocking to buyout your PM. It is inefficient and incorrect.

Your PM is probably about $262/NW at 84% tech (the tech you need to be at to get $35 PM food). But your per turn cash upkeep and food upkeep is far less. Let's call your per turn upkeep (both food and cash) X. In that same turn if you make 100% jets, you produce Y networth.

In otherwords, you spent X dollars to "buy" Y NW, consuming 1 turn. $X/Y is going to be about half (and initially a lot lower than half) of your PM's $262/NW, or $245/NW if you ignore the turrets, or even $239/NW if you ignore the jets too. $X will obviously rise as your NW increases, but you won't reach anywhere close to $255/NW until you're about 180m NW... and the record finishing NW on Primary is 163m only.

Not only is cashing out cheaper, you also don't lose 10% of your stock to commission loss buying said food. And then chalk up another say 20-30% loss to buying food at, say $45 (which is $49 after commission) to sell at $35 in PM.

You'll get more NW out of it by just cashing every turn, and topping up to 2b cash everyday, than the upkeep costs you save by stocking food that depreciates in value.

Karim Game profile

Member
761

Feb 14th 2013, 17:51:03

But that way the upkeeping cost will kill me the last days: i checked the 70k CIs from last resets and they had a final upkeeping cost of 20mils per turn and 185k bushels, more or less.

That's a cost of 26.5 mils per turn: you sure the loss from buying private (with all the involved loss from buying/selling bushels) negates the high expenses suffered for a week?
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Xinhuan Game profile

Member
3728

Feb 14th 2013, 18:10:18

Yes. All the indies you see cash to the very last turn because it is still profitable to do so.

On Alliance, the moment X/Y > 262, you switch to buying from PM and stop cashing.

$20m per turn with 185k bushels at $36 is 26660000 dollars. A 70k indy makes 70k*1.35*1.86*1.55 = 163466 NW per turn.

$26660000 / 163466 = $163/NW.

Go figure.

Karim Game profile

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761

Feb 14th 2013, 18:14:52

Thanks!! That's a formula i missed still and that i'll start using immediately :)
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Karim Game profile

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761

Feb 14th 2013, 18:16:06

Care to explain 70k*1,35*1,86*1,55? i mean, i got what 70k is, but the other numbers?
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Xinhuan Game profile

Member
3728

Feb 14th 2013, 18:19:44

By the way, for this to make sense, you must think of your units as your stockpile. You are selling your units to the public market at $240-250/NW during the last week to cash them back at maybe $100-$163/NW (And this $100-163/NW already takes into account their upkeep, because it IS the upkeep to cash that 1 turn.)

It's the "commie way of reselling".

Edited By: Xinhuan on Feb 14th 2013, 18:24:52
See Original Post

Xinhuan Game profile

Member
3728

Feb 14th 2013, 18:21:18

70k commie x 1.35 Commie bonus x 1.86 jets per acre x 155% indy tech x 0.6 NW per jet

Guess i forgot to type in the *0.6, but the 163466 NW is still correct.

Karim Game profile

Member
761

Feb 14th 2013, 18:28:32

Thanks, i really appreciate it :)
-[Panzer Division MD]-

Xinhuan Game profile

Member
3728

Feb 14th 2013, 18:33:50

Now you see why -expenses are important to commies?

Commie Indy is one of the most difficult strategies to master, and afaik has done this 17 resets in a row... with 16 top 10s.

(I only have 3 CI t10s out of 5 resets. The 4th I was ranked 11, and the 5th set I warred Vivanick (we were slated to finish rank 4 and 5 otherwise).)

Karim Game profile

Member
761

Feb 14th 2013, 19:14:57

I knew expenses are important to CI: last set i played i used expenses reduction till the end, but i don't think it was the right thing to do.

Now the problem is, when it is better to stop using Expenses and go booms only? When you stop grabbing and start cashing straight?

Or at a set %?
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Xinhuan Game profile

Member
3728

Feb 14th 2013, 19:38:25

When the expected savings from getting that -0.8% military expenses more for the remainder of the reset on averaged expenses (cashing to the last turn) divided by 8 bonus points

is less than

the expected gains from using 2 booms (+4 turns of income) divided by 6 bonus points.


Evaluate this daily. Note that if your current military expenses is say 5m, and you already have -25% bonus, then your real expense is 5/0.75 = 6.66667m, and that -0.8% is applied on this 6.666667m figure, not the 5m figure.

Serpentor Game profile

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2800

Feb 14th 2013, 20:38:58

Xin looks pretty correct on everything here.
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Serpentor Game profile

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2800

Feb 14th 2013, 20:43:42

One more thing to look at is if its more worth while to cash a turn or explore and build the 6 acres. Because before a certain point 6 acres of production is worth more than your 10% saving for one turn. You'd have to calculate that off your own country based on turns remaining, your current tech levels, etc...
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AndrewMose Game profile

Member
1102

Feb 14th 2013, 20:44:37

Ive always thought of it as what is the best resource to stock. Your choices are food, tech, cash, or units. They all have a cost to stock.

I've always thought that simply stocking cash was better than stocking military units. I tend to try to wait until I have enough cash on hand to go the rest of the set without selling before I cash out. Looks like in previous sets the best commies took a different approach.

Edited By: AndrewMose on Feb 14th 2013, 21:08:08. Reason: Not sure if correct
See Original Post

blid

Member
EE Patron
9319

Feb 14th 2013, 21:05:56

what's that with it costing you money to hold onto cash?
Originally posted by Mr. Titanium:
Watch your mouth boy, I have never been accused of cheating on any server nor deleted before you just did right there.

AndrewMose Game profile

Member
1102

Feb 14th 2013, 21:08:38

Originally posted by blid:
what's that with it costing you money to hold onto cash?


the assumption is that you are over $2B and eating corruption.

Xinhuan Game profile

Member
3728

Feb 14th 2013, 21:14:05

Not exactly, AndrewMose, you can't just "choose" to stop selling, since your final goal is to keep selling to the point where you have _just enough cash_ to cash out every remainder turn in the reset.

The thing you were attempting to explain is whether to oversell and say hold 3b or 5b on hand (with some corruption), or only sell to top up to 2b every login but experience higher upkeep.

Suffice to say, it isn't very conclusive, and I haven't done any tests either way, and your example only accounts for the "last turn" without any upkeep.

AndrewMose Game profile

Member
1102

Feb 14th 2013, 21:17:32

Originally posted by Xinhuan:
Not exactly, AndrewMose, you can't just "choose" to stop selling, since your final goal is to keep selling to the point where you have _just enough cash_ to cash out every remainder turn in the reset.

The thing you were attempting to explain is whether to oversell and say hold 3b or 5b on hand (with some corruption), or only sell to top up to 2b every login but experience higher upkeep.

Suffice to say, it isn't very conclusive, and I haven't done any tests either way, and your example only accounts for the "last turn" without any upkeep.


yeah, I'm not positive I am correct so I don't want to mislead someone. But I used the last turn because that is the marginal cost to regain the jet you sold. Again typically the cash from the sale of a jet costs you less per turn then the jet itself.

Xinhuan Game profile

Member
3728

Feb 14th 2013, 21:19:08

Originally posted by Serpentor:
One more thing to look at is if its more worth while to cash a turn or explore and build the 6 acres. Because before a certain point 6 acres of production is worth more than your 10% saving for one turn. You'd have to calculate that off your own country based on turns remaining, your current tech levels, etc...


Tip: It's easier to calculate in terms of your BPT than on 6 acres. Example, your BPT is 100. So you would explore 100/6 = 16 turns to explore 100 acres, and spend the 17th turn building it.

So you would look at 17 turns of extra cash from cashing

versus

100 acres of indy production over the remainder of the reset, minus the construction cost of the 100 acres, minus the tech cost you have to buy to maintain tech% (say about 30 tech per acre (10 for indy, maybe 5 for res/bus each, and another 10 for mil), giving a total of 3000 tech points to buy).

oldman Game profile

Member
877

Feb 15th 2013, 7:21:33

You actually save more expenses if you cash with corruption. I've done it a number of times.