Aug 20th 2011, 9:59:20
I think you are overlooking the concept of a national identity. China, India, Indonesia, USA, Brazil, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Russia, and Japan all have strong identitic histories of a specific group of people and customs. If the deterious effects of current governance tip the scales, the people of a common identity will rise up and reform along ideas currently envogue.
1) China - Has massive foreign currency reserves, a population of 1.34m projected to peak in 2030 at 1.40m with over 50% now living in urban areas. They are raising state paid education from 9 years to 12, allowing One-Child Couples to have 2 children, and raising minimum wages. The common Chinese language and 92-98% Han population represent a commonality that has survived one conquest after another. I don't approve of all their policies, to put it nicely, but they are stable enough for another 100 years.
2) India - Is another ancient society, but a multicultural one. There are 31 Indian national languages, but only English and Hindi nation wide. The empire was forged by the Monguls, not the British though. There is so much poverty in India that there is a common spirit and it is a true religious melting pot with more Christians than England and more Jains than Iran. Democracy is flurishing, although struggling with the enormity of their situation. Over the last decade, it's pulled it's Corruption Index up from 2.7 to 3.3, a long way to go still, but a solid voice in government.
3) USA - The US tried to break up once, and was brought back at the point of a gun. What would stop Washington from declaring Marshall Law and sending the military against a state in sucession? If you aren't talking about a dissolution of the United States, China and Europe are too heavily invested to let the nation walk away. The American Dream for the last 50 years is that they government can spend more money than taxes are collected. I expect decades more of languishing for the US 'recovery', but the devaluation of America will be the rise of world income. The US has a history of coming up with a game-changer, though. Any new industry based in America could give the US economic hope beyond 2030. The US will continue to push other nations to spend on joint military as it scales back it's own. We continue the slow march to unified world governance.
4) Indonesia - Undergone governmental reform in the last 7 years, increasing direct accountability. They might be prone to fractionalization, but money from the central government keep the districts willing to stay in union, after seeing the neglect and mismanagement of Nauru. As of 2010, an estimated 13.3% of the population was living below poverty line, and the unemployment rate was 7.1%. A multi-ethic mostly segregated society the local governance has taken over from 350 years of Dutch supervision.
5) Brazil - The Portuegese half of South America didn't fracture into regional states like the Spainish half, so why would it now? Brazil is done will in the first decade of this century. They've been purging corruption and prohibitive trade practices. The economy is expanding with some 200k hectacres of American farmland now replaced by Brazilian farmers. Gone of the days of TV Shows with janitorial jobs as prizes. The language connection gives strong roots with Portugal and the EU, as well as unity against the Spainish surrounding. Any state that might breakaway would like to claim the rainforests. It'd be a bloody mess, but no worse that what's ongoing in Columbia or Nicaragua.
6) Pakistan - aka Muslim India. They are united by culture and religion. One of the few major non-Arab Islamic countries, it has a spirit of unity and persecution at the hands of Mongols, British and Hindus in turn. The military rule should not outlast 50-80 years, but maybe an 'Arab Spring' might come sooner than expected. Again, no sense of the group disintergating, only the current specific governance.
7) Nigeria - Debt free and people rich. The first country in Africa to clear its national debt, Nigeria is now investing heavy on infrastructure penetration. Again, democracy tendencies have sprung up in the last 12 years. They had elections this year after an encumbant died in office, and a Dr. Goodluck Jonathan filled the gap and stepped aside for the elected president. The are funding the rehabilitation of Lake Chad and building a large hydro-electric dam to bring both fresh/desalinated water and electricity from the shore inland. Corruption is bad, but most of Africa is, but the potential and desire for change is there.
8) Bangladesh - A case that shows the strength of cultural identity, Bangladesh has little effective government and massive poverty. Smaller governance groups would not elevate that poverty without the same investment of knowledge and resources. The people of Bangladesh endure, they could become 12 countries, but to what purpose?
9) Russia - A country of patchwork nations with a uniting language base. The USSR already broke up, and while a few parts of Russia might not want to stay in the union, they are by no means allowed to consider leaving. Russia has the nukes and other weapons to make it happen and the nutballs willing to scrotch their own people to make a point. They also have the natural resources to continue playing at the game of states. The mixture of political structure, criminal structure, and economic prosperity means corruption there is just another form of success.
10) Japan - The most monolithic culture in the world, and a wacky one at that. Japan is a nation that has undergone tremendous change over the last 202 years since the Americas opened their ports at gun point. The Japanese are a mature and aging culture, who have seen the benefit of industrialization and worked with a commonality through building a nation, then rebuilding it after the war and dreams of empire.
None of these 10 population masses is going to seriously decline or fragment due to their overriding commonalities. It's the same reason Quebec stayed in Canada dispite all the frustrations and differences: because it's worth it.
Effective group size is affected by group linkages, and modern communication styles apply to a much more diverse pattern of usage making stats from the 1990s or early outmoded. I am mostly hoping to live to see a democratic revolution to replace the ineffective represtative model which is predisposed to power seekers, short-sighted planning, and political pandering.