Sep 4th 2010, 15:25:18
Early set: Any small demo can quickly max mil tech and then buy any food under $39 on public for a profit. So cost of food will quickly be above $40 on public within a day or two of oop. Those small countries (it could be a start to get max mil tech while still trying to keep decent size/CS etc by turn 100 ish) could make oodles of cash early. Then you will have market at 39/40 for a long time, b/c so many farmers now sell on private market early set, and they will now be forced to sell on public. Early demand is very low for food, so really a majority of the bushels will be being bought at 39 (or even 38) by some nice guy who is running demo with max mil tech. Such a guy may again make a huge profit...
Mid Set: Once serious stocking starts and demand for food does rise above supply, the price will go above the 39$ price floor you have now established. But with farmer guaranteed such a high NW with $39 floor I think more people will have to go farmer these days. Or in other words, if the ratio of techer/farmer/casher/indy stayed the same, farmer would dominate, so I think there would be way more farmers, so thus the peak in food, which is fueled by cashers/indy's stocking would be less high than it is currently. A current average peak is about 65. I think it would be possible to see no more than 55 as a high now. This really messes up a BSS type strat and early destock techers who place well b/c they destock at 50-60 when others destock at 32. Now they destock at 40-50 when others destock at 39. Ouch heh...so that strat is basically dead. Meaning that if you go techer you either switch to casher/farmer mid set or you tech all set long as nobody has incentive to jump early with such a high price floor and low price peak for bushels.
End Set: Basically everyone will still dump bushels on public as you jump either as theo or demo. DEMO if you have MBs you sell on public, if you don't you sell on your own private. Theo you sell on public.