Anyone that has the interest and a lot of spare time (looking in your direction gerdy) want to get on alpha FFA and play with the luck bonus? I see the occasional "I've heard it does _____, but never confirmed it" on various things not mentioned in the bonus announcement from 2011 - mostly related to the random events. Who wants to experiment?



Slag later makes the comment on that thread: "It decreases the standard deviation of the "random factor"."

No thanks - just share the source code for luck bonus.

~LAR

Well get on it. You have the interest and access lol

I havent run turns in over a year

All I ever did was look at luck for explore returns and missile production.

If it has effect on spy ops it could be quite important in some war settings but I have not touched that and I will not.

I have some numbers lying around in an excel sheet from my quite limited testing(I only tested low luck bonus) but as I recall my conclusions were:

Missile production:
1. With high warfare the difference in missile production, with low luck vs no luck, is more or less negligeble.
2. With low warfare the difference is quite noticeable.

It makes it a bit odd tho because if you care about missiles at all, you wouldn't run low warfare.

Anecdotally people who make war have tested it out and told me that turns make more missiles. That is not a complete analysis tho, since turns make so much more than missiles(more land, spies, stock etc) and luck also do so much more than missiles(more explore gains, spy op success, market timing help?).

Explores would be interesting to try out more rigorously because iirc I saw quite significant improvement in explore gains over 1000 turns and such. This could in fact matter in a longer server where exploring is the primary mode of growth.

It's been a bit pointless for me because it never mattered to anything I play so I never found a reason to research it rigorously.

Anything with randomness takes quite a bit of time to look at rigoriously btw. This is especially true if there are other factors that are not known how they effect the outcome.

Anything with spies for instance is hell to test, since theres randomness and spy DR(being spied out) and the attacker loses spies when he fails (if target has spies) and other things about spies we don't know about from what the devs have told us(or possibly even told us faulty information about).

Interesting....

Indeed

Yeh it would be nice to know the formula for the effects of luck.

I just assumed that if you increase luck by 0.4%, then you have 0.4% extra luck for producing a missile and having a successful spy op. For example, if warfare was 2%, then 0.4% luck would be 2% * 1.004 = 2.008% which is negligible.

If, say, you invested heavily in luck and have 2%, then 2% of 2% would be 2.04% which is still insignificant. I might be wrong with my assumptions though.

Also, I think they should make luck increase the chance of a positive event, such as a PCI or food boom. This would make this luck bonus option a bit more attractive. Although, I guess this is up to the developers to decide.

The original explanation isn't that far off the mark. Luck does the following:

* Increase the chance of getting a positive random event (such as PCI booms)
* Decrease the chance of getting a negative random event (such as earthquakes)
* Increase the chance of missile production
* Increase explore rate returns
* Decrease standard deviation of "random factor" when performing attacks
* Increase chance of successful spy ops regardless of SPAL
* Reduce maximum time to market

It works in a relative, multiplicative fashion. For example, if you had a 50% chance of successfully completing a spy op, a 10% luck bonus would boost your success chance to 55%.

Good input, thank you Slagpit and good to see you!

Is it recommended to spend on luck bonus a lot?

Depending on what strategy you're playing, each strategy will dictate what bonus to apply for the most part.

For luck, you typically use that if you're exploring the whole set (all explore).

luck is your friend

Making missiles, all hail war mongers!!!!

I think for missiles, luck is more impactful if you don't have warfare tech, but gets washed out if you do (so war mongers may want to focus on something else).

In FFA you can test that, all my bonus injected countries with same warfare % were more productive than non bonus countries.

At high or low warfare %?

All maxed warfare tech of course, also this was 2012, not sure how much things changed coding wise in that server 🤷 maybe Prime can fill us in?