Originally posted by TAN:
It would have been more difficult, but the USSR would have came out on top. That is, if the Japanese did not intervene.
The expansionist Japanese and their Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere weren't as interested in Soviet territories as they were in the resource rich British and American colonial possessions. With Britain and Japan not fighting against a Nazi Europe, they would be free to throw all resources into the Pacific. The Japanese would fall hard and fast long before they'd get around to their ongoing disputes with the Russians.
Russia versus Germany would be interesting... How would it get to that point? For G v R to be possible you probably have to have them taking Poland, which is when the Brits first declared war... Maybe keep it as a cold war with Germany never attacking France and the Low Countries? Or before that even, stop short of attacking Norway, giving PM Chamberlain a chance to keep his job, maybe?
Ultimately it would come down to Germany's industrial and technological might versus the mass of humanity Mother Russia would be able to throw against her enemies. Big advantage to Germany, as long as they consolidate their power and always play to their strengths. However, one question that could swing things back to the Soviets: How much land is Germany try to hold? Occupying all of European Russia in addition to their continental conquests is a helluva lot to protect. The Soviet's scorched earth campaign wouldn't exactly make things easy for the Germans. Insurgencies would be constantly popping up throughout all their territory (especially if UK, USA, and maybe France are fighting a Cold War with them and supplying the insurgents). Germany has a big advantage when it comes to winning the battles, but it dwindles to a near stalemate when it comes to holding their winnings.
Had all this played out in this manner, German scientists would have beaten the Americans to the Atomic Bomb. America's Normandy would have been the assault of mainland Japan, making the bomb much less necessary.
One thing that makes this discussion somewhat moot though is that Germany still had colonial aspirations. They still would have come in conflict sooner or later with the UK, though it wouldn't be nearly on so grand a scale.