Originally
posted by
AndrewMose:
I'm not sure why 200m bushels would make the prices drop any faster. farmers only need to undercut by 1. obviously the prices did drop to far, but I don't fully understand the mechanics of why it dropped so fast if nobody else was dumping stock.
Yep, but all it takes is another farmer to sell another $1 lower than your $1 drop, and some might anticipate this and undercut by $2 instead. Then if for one day, some farmer's food got stuck and didn't sell and he needs cash to spend his turns, he is forced to recall and undercut by another $2 or risk not be able to play turns (other than by selling food to PM - an even worse outcome). Because Primary server has a 4-6 hour time for goods to reach the market, and giving 1-2 hours reaction time, food price will drop roughly $3-4 every day (as opposed to $4-$5 a day on Alliance server) during a crash.
Likewise, destocking techers need to sell as fast as they can in order to capitalize on the lower military prices. I think you jumped maybe 1 day too early but that is usually better than jumping 1 day too late.
When Reroll revealed that eating corruption was better, that immediately killed any remaining food demand and Crest's attempt to resell food was pretty much foiled.
I think the worst mistake all the other cashers did was to buy food above $42 (this price really depends on number of turns left in the reset to your PM jump date). It was better to eat corruption, which I didn't really eat much of since I turned stored the full 160 turns while it was above $45, I pretty much got most of my food at $42 just before the first peak, at $39 after the first peak, and $37 after the second peak and bought none after the third peak.
Now the interesting thing here is that Decay bonus has proved to be fairly advantageous for oldman and kingofthezulus, since they can hold cash instead of a depreciating product: food. This is at the cost of higher expenses (since you are not getting expenses bonus), which oldman mitigated by being Dictator (lower unit count) and kingofthezulus by being on only 30k acres and unlikely to be topfed (or bottomfed), but at the risk of being stockhunted. Oldman was able to sell all his food daily at whatever the daily peak price was. He had 23b cash on hand of which Bobby grabbed $650m dollars.
I think Herbs and afaik played phenomenal commies this reset, while I think Serp should grab to 70k - definitely would have finished above 130m if so.
Aqua finished lower than expected, probably because as mentioned, he was on holiday (losing some bonus turns and points), and he also chose to go for the land record instead (his final grab was an overall NW loss). He was also 1-1.5m tech points behind although he was on the same acreage.
This is pretty much my post-reset analysis.
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