Id say fearvendor is probably not capable of retalling, and AustAgder (#210) is probably loaded with enough missles at this point to deter him.

fearvendor usually gets farmed about 20-30 days in. The fact he didn't this set is a perfect example of how good a start C/I had this set, but then how that effed things up midset when many more C/i players stayed on top then usually do.

Ugh I need food and fuel and then some jets... c'mon fascists, stop being greedy!

Let me know when oil dips below $200 , guys ;-)

Which one of you fluffers is going around stealing tech now?

6.7 hours ago
Spies infiltrated your research labs and stole 9740 points of technology!

Showed him.... I've got no tech. Hahaha!!!!

I know who is stealing tech. I've lost some myself. Just try to 1 tank AB all the countries (start with Dictators in your range first), looking for a country where it doesn't say GDI disallows you from attacking.

Yup. And then AB it.

I have bigger problems to worry about right now.. I may come back to it if I remember later.

He has gotten me a couple times also. But I'm used to it every set get tech stolen from me.

On a completely different note, everything is back on the rise again price wise. Oil jumped, military is climbing back up, tech is moving back up and bushels well they are going to stay the same for a long time.

This might be a very interesting last 3 weeks. Full of big retals and different countries in the top then most normal sets of Primary.

This should keep it all very interesting and gl to all in the final stretch!

I would be very tempted to jump now if I were a techer...

That doesn't sound very tempting at all. Tech prices are going up and techers have only been stocking ~10 days.

Techers will want to wait a few more days and jump when the cashers begin to stock. Unless they feel that they can capitalize on a public market destock (which may be much much better than a private market destock the way things look this set).

I don't think there is a chance that food prices plummet until the very end of this set.

And cashers are never gonna stock with these food prices.

no, and the scary part is if some of the farmers didn't go resource decay...those farmers would begin to stock.

Especially since they're not demo farmers. You know, pretty strange to go tyrant farmer over demo. Just trying to set a tyrant record or why else?

I wonder what #187 is doing.

I wonder what #295 will do!

PS BioHazzard from XI (#45) pindippy (#295) 5014A (7401A)

Uh what are you doing KoH? You're a techer, right? Unless you're done teching and want a bigger private market, that hit doesn't help you even if he doesn't retal... let alone if he does... and he's bigger than you so I'm guessing he will.

He's sittn all FAT near my NW, tech aint selling, i got plenty oil, i wanted more land...fk it, why not, im not gonna worry about him retalling or not, its worth the experience gain.

BTW, crest has a killer calculator, oh baby!

hey blid, just out of curiosity, how come it's not beneficial for techers to keep growing unlike cashers/commies? Wouldn't an extra thousand acres/day = more tech = more $$ = more NW for them too? Never really played a techer before so not sure what the logic is.

Because every other gov type makes an income while spying, attacking, and building (military, food, oil, cash). Techers get nothing during that time.

KoH just got 7400 land. On a good bpt that's 74 turns spent building with no income whatsoever, for him more like 148, and that's days without generating any new tech or income. Before the hit, KoH had roughly 8200 tpt. 8200tpt * 80 turns building (if he had good bpt) * $1800 = $1.18b income he loses by attacking and building instead of teching, and actually he loses $2.4b because of his lousy bpt.

Then there's also the building cost. 7400 acres costing $100k per building at his size adds up to another $740m. So now he's cost himself $3.14b in lost money by making this grab, not to mention some lost military and oil costs (oil that could be sold for a bundle on the market right now).

How many worthwhile tech days are there? I don't know but let's say 2 weeks. If he was getting 8200tpt before, and he gets 10,800 after the grab, that's 2600 more tech per day. By the time he's done building, tech prices will be lower by the way as well. So let's say 2600 additional tech per turn * 11 days * 57 turns/day * 1600 = $2.6b. So he would be better off just dropping all his new land than actually building it.

Also he's going to get retaled and lose 3000 land too.

...

AustAgder could very well run away from the pack. With these prices we may see more grabs of 5000 acres +. He will basically be limited by whatever his BPT his.

*head xplodes* damn you blid :p

His net doesn't match as well for big gains now, since he had to jump to avoid fearvendor, and anyone that can still give him 5k acres is also a pretty dangerous grab.

I guess if you had 100bpt those numbers might show it being slightly worth it which surprises me because I still don't think it's a good idea heh. Well in this case it still wouldn't be worth it because the guy can retal - getting hit is hell for techers because you spent all those turns making buildings instead of tech, and then you lose the land heh.

Thx for the explaination blid/Andrew. So if KoH had like 100bpt and it only cost him 74 turns, then it would have been worth it to make that hit right (assuming no retal)? Roughly $1.8bln lost compared to $2.6bln gained?

Or if KoH had grabbed another techer, that would have made it a worthwhile hit right? Since he'd only have to build like 5000 of those acres?

Hm maybe I'll try a techer one of these sets and make a calculator to figure out opportunity cost given days left haha.

Might be worth it by the numbers, but it's risky. First, if you hit a techer, they probably have stock they can spend to retal and then you lose out for sure. Secondly, at this stage in the game you have no idea how much longer prices will hold out. They could crash at any time and then you'll be really sorry you were building instead of teching. Most techers stop around the 5th, some big techers stopped earlier this set because people reached high land early and prices took an early first drop. Also the earlier you start stocking instead of growing the cheaper you can get into the food market.

I'm going back to farmer next set, should've done so this set but tech prices pulledd me from going after tech phase :(

Just make sure your calculator is based on turns left stocking. Not turns left in the set.

Looks like the food bubble has finally burst and prices are decreasing as swiftly as they increased!

Remember last reset LATC? When I explained to you why it wasn't worth grabbing when you said you were trying to maximise networth? As you get to the last 3 weeks of the reset (and last 2 weeks for nontechers), you would be calculating every grab you make

(Extra income gained over reset of set) minus (Cost of grab) minus (construction cost)

vs

additional income just cashing the turn.


However, the second one is affected by stocking losses (say you buy food at $45 and end up destocking it at $36), which you must also take into account, and grabbing allows you to start stocking later at a cheaper food price. But you also suffer stocking losses on the first case, just not as much.

I think i figured out who that Tyr top cat is :-)

food has dropped below $70. The demand is growing at a slower rate than the supply. Part 2 of my analysis.

Techers - tech prices have picked up by about 10% or so over the last few days. Techer's incomes have increased and hence their stocking ability. Most of the techers are in stocking phase. Demand on bushels increased.

Cashers - they have grown steadily over the last few days as well, which increases their consumption. Cashers are not stocking yet, and will likely not start to stock at this kind of food prices. Demand on bushels increased.

Commies - similarly, they have grown over the past few days. Consumption has increased but not as much as that compared to the cashers. Demand on bushels slightly increased.

Farmers - farmers are growing at a very quick pace over the last few days. Supply has been growing at a large pace.

Oilers - this is new vs the last analysis. Oil prices have spiked to >$400 and this will likely slow down some people's growth, which can lead to a decline in demand in food. The prices are not high enough to stop a farmer's growth though, hence food supply is increasing faster than food demand.

Overall - food prices will likely remain above $60 for the foreseeable future due to the following factors:
a) farmers stop growing and start stocking
b) cashers continue to grow as they would not want to stock such high priced bushels
c) techers continue to stockpile food before they initiate the inadvertent crash (who knows when?)
d) commies continue to grow for another week or so before preparing for cash out.
e) oil price will likely ease slowly, grabbing will pick up pace again and food demand rises.

rgds,
EE Analyst <-- my new title heh :)
oldman

I don't think #210 got corruption bonus (total speculation). If he stops selling food and starts stocking, food supply is cut by like half heh.

All it takes is a spy op to determine if he did or not...

yeah, but I didn't take one, that's why it's speculation

half is exaggerating. 72k acres * 5.3 bushels/turn * 220% agric tech = 840k bushels/turn

A day worth's of production = slightly less than 50m, which is about 20% of the current demand. But yes, significant enough to raise food prices.

how would a spy op tell you the bonus?

well, a farmer with corruption bonus might be selling all his food yet not spending all the money (to keep expenses down) and with these prices i'd bet he'd have over $2b on hand. also a spy op would tell you if he spent on turns

In the spy op food consumption includes food lost to decay. So you could figure it out that way I would think. I must admit when I first made the post above claiming you could tell I was thinking about expenses and not decay bonus for some reason lol...

haha AustAgder is making ~45M bushels a day lets say. Using 24 hour averages, that is 45M*67*.94=2.84B= roughly 23M turrets (at 117$/turret). Damn.

45M??

More like 53-54M

Assuming 65,000 farms and 215% Agri
65000*5.3*2.15*72&67*0.94= 3.35bil/day

Oldman, good analysis. At such volatile and high prices though, I wonder if bushels are even being stocked by the techers? If some Techer's have been in their prime now a little over a week, they only really got into the food market when prices hit >$40. As soon as they would of started stocking, prices started to increase, and in the span of about 7 days went from >$40 to >$70. There would be about 3 weeks left in the set at the peak bushel price. I wonder if it made sense to keep stocking bushels knowing that if/when it crashed they would be selling for far less than they purchased?

Don't forget that the techers might be cycling bushels initially. For example, buying food at 50 to sell at 55, then buying it back at 58 to sell at 62, etc. (Think of stockpile in dollar value, not bushel count).

Cycling bushels profits the Demo countries, and raises the price of food for everyone else. Not only that, food demand is artificially increased (in terms of volume traded per 24 hours), and cycling bushels can backfire as well (buy for 75, but unable to sell for even 70 now), and countries can be dumping them in larger amounts to salvage cycling losses.

However, I don't think that is really the full story, and I think techers are just holding on to their tech and not buying bushels (so tech price rises, food falls correspondingly).

there aren't 72 turns/day h20. More like 54

Haha. Although if a farmer switches to booms they get a lot more than 54 turns worth.

well, not that much more, maybe 58-59 turns' worth every day with booms included.

I'm sure they are stocking. They just need to dump the bushels before it crashes, but more often than not, techers will be the ones causing the crash. One of them will initiate the dumping, the rest panics and follow suit and the food price just spirals downwards from there. Happens every set.